Пять технологий, которые повлияют на мир в ближайшие 10 лет

The American “Forbes” magazine looks forward to the five major technologies that will affect the world in the next 10 years: new computer architecture, genomics, nanotechnology, energy storage technology and robotics. As these technologies complement each other and develop together, humanity will begin to control the physical world.

Twenty years ago, the global Internet penetration rate was only 5% in 2001, and the network speed was very slow, but now it has grown to 50%. At that time, mobile phones had become popular, but they were only used to make calls and send text messages, and the popularity of smartphones was still far away. Google is just a startup. Even if you have Internet access, you can only send and receive emails or provide some basic information services. The video site YouTube was just born five years ago. People do not know that e-commerce is a viable business model. Many people think that Amazon cannot survive. Social media is not yet popular. Since then, the progress of science and technology has been incredible. In the past 20 years, the development of technology has been mainly limited to the virtual world. By 2030, we will see the transformation of technology into the physical world.

1. New computer architecture.

In 1965, Gordon Moore proposed the famous Moore’s law, which predicted that the chip processing speed would double every 18 months. For 50 years, engineers have been practicing this development rule of the chip industry. But now, Moore’s Law has come to an end, people still try to continue the life cycle of Moore’s Law through three-dimensional stacking and FPGA chip technology, but its effect is limited. If we want to continue to develop the chip industry, we need to develop new computer architectures. One of them is quantum computing, which uses the overlapping and entanglement effects in quantum mechanics to develop a computer chip with millions of times of performance; the other is to develop a neuroscience chip that imitates the human brain, and its running speed will be the number of existing computers. One billion times. The commercialization of these two new computers will take several years, but there are already working prototypes. As early as 10 years ago, we can see that these new architectures will revolutionize the computer industry.

2. Genomics.

3. Nanotechnology

As early as 1959, the physicist Richard Feynman proposed the concept of nanotechnology-the production of atomic-scale materials-which at the time sounded undoubtedly a science fiction novel. Now this has become a reality, such as graphene and quantum dots, opening the door to new materials for humans. “The number of applications of nanotechnology in the future is too numerous to mention. However, the realization of new materials at the molecular level is still in its infancy. But by 2030, we will be able to download new designs of new physical materials, just like we are today It’s the same as downloading the software.” In addition, according to Feynman’s assumption, the related technology will also produce nanomedicine. Doctors will treat individual diseased cells with devices smaller than the width of human hair to make the medical effect more effective. “By 2030, nanorobots are expected to enter the blood directly to find diseased cells, pathogens or repair specific cells.

4. energy storage technology.

Over the past 40 years, energy storage technology has been continuously improved. In 1970, the lithium-ion battery came out, and the corresponding energy storage density and cost kept rising. Take a look at your laptop, it even accounts for 90% of the weight and volume. Since entering the era of smart phones, the revolution of mobile devices has promoted the development of battery technology in the direction of miniaturization and low cost. However, just like Moore’s Law in the chip industry, lithium-ion batteries are now approaching the theoretical limit of technology. Researchers are working hard to find alternative technologies. Researchers at the ArgonneNationalLab laboratory in the United States are studying a new generation of battery technology that will be five times the capacity of existing lithium-ion batteries and cost only one-fifth of the current cost.

5. robot technology.

Robot technology is another rapidly developing technological field. In the past, almost all robots have been used in heavy industry. To ensure safety, they are often far away from human operation. Now, whether on the battlefield, in the factory or in life, robots are starting to work side by side with humans. By 2030, robots will play a greater role in daily life. The new generation of robots will use nano materials, which are lighter and more robust; equipped with powerful neural chips and running advanced deep learning algorithms, which can interact with people in a natural way.

The past 20 years have largely depended on the development of digital technology. The next 10 years will be a deep integration of technology. A more powerful computer architecture will create conditions for human work at the genome and molecular level, leading to the development of intelligent machines. New energy and new energy storage technologies will make these technologies more useful, safe and efficient.

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